Macro analysis is the study of big-picture trends that influence markets and economies.
Monetary policy is the ultimate indicator of trends in the business cycle. The fed funds rate, which influences all other interest rates, is the common denominator in all U.S. expansions and slowdowns. History shows that it takes about 18 months for changes in the fed funds rate to be reflected in leading indicators, like equities. It takes another six months or so for these changes to be reflected in GDP growth.
There’s a maxim in the financial industry that says successful investors, like great hockey players, need to play not where the puck is, but where the puck is going. While the equity market is a leading indicator of the economy, how do investors figure out the future path of stocks?
Why Has Macro's Influence Become More Pronounced In Recent Decades?
The influence of macro increases as holding periods for stocks decline.
Investors have become increasingly short-term focused in recent decades. Macro analysis has gained in importance as holding periods are now shorter than a full business cycle.
A long holding period MITIGATES the impact of the business cycle on stock selection.
Macro is often perceived as unimportant for equity investing. This may have been truer several decades ago when the average holding period for stocks was five to eight years and covered more than a full market cycle.
A short holding period MAGNIFIES the impact of the business cycle on stock selection.
Over the last several decades the average holding period for stocks has fallen to about one year. This shorter time horizon greatly increases the influence that macro trends can have on a portfolio.
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This Macro Specialist Designation Candidate Agreement (“Candidate Agreement”) is entered into between The Center for the Macro Specialist Designation (“CMSD”), whose registered address is 75 S Broadway, Suite 4-5677, White Plains, NY 10601, USA, and the person who registers with CMSD for the M2SD Program Level 1 (“M2SD Program”) in order to take the M2SD Exam Level 1 (“M2SD Exam”) (“you”).
Legal Nature of Candidate Agreement
By registering for the M2SD Program, you understand, accept, and agree to comply with the Candidate Agreement, as amended from time to time. You understand CMSD has the authority to void your exam result, and reject, suspend, or terminate your participation in the M2SD Program at any time for your failure to comply with the Candidate Agreement or any exam security policy. You understand that you will not be a candidate for the M2SD Program unless and until CMSD has received full payment of your registration fees and you meet all other criteria for registration. The criteria for registration can be found on the M2SD website. By registering for the M2SD Program, you attest that you meet all of the criteria for registration.
MSD Program
The M2SD Program is a course of study and exams that if passed lead to CMSD’s M2SD designation. The M2SD program costs $2,500.00 USD per exam level plus any applicable sales, VAT, or other taxes and is payable as part of the registration process on the CMSD website and Canvas Catalog website via Stripe. Once you are registered and accepted into the M2SD Program by CMSD, CMSD will provide some course materials and video on demand teaching via the Canvas website in order to assist you in preparing to take the M2SD Exam. Some reading materials are not provided by CMSD and it is your responsibility to obtain them. CMSD will provide the M2SD Exam at a test center as described below. CMSD reserves the right to reject your registration in its sole discretion for any reason. If your registration is rejected, you will receive a refund of your registration fee.
Misconduct and Rules Violations
Misconduct is any activity or conduct that compromises or attempts to compromise the reputation, integrity, validity, or security of the M2SD Exam or the conduct of the M2SD Program. This includes conduct occurring before, during, and after the administration of the exam, and includes a violation of any testing rule or policy. By entering into this Candidate Agreement you agree that you will comply with all testing and teaching rules and policies required by CMSD and/or the test administrator, including but not limited to those listed below.
No Cheating. You agree that you will not cheat. Cheating occurs when you look at another candidate’s monitor or desk, including their exam questions, answers, or written work; give assistance on the exam; or receive assistance on the exam. You agree that all work you submit in completing the M2SD Exam, including exam answers, is entirely your own work. You agree to refrain from communicating with fellow candidates or other persons during the exam or using unauthorized materials during the exam, including on unscheduled breaks.
No Misconduct. You agree that you will:(i) act with integrity and respect when dealing with testing personnel, including following the directions of testing personnel before, during, and after the exam; (ii) silence all electronic devices prior to entering the test center, including turning off all alerts, alarms, and ringtones; (iii) clear your calculator memory before the exam and when directed to, and will not:(iv) create any disturbance before, during, or after the exam; (v) leave the test center facility on unscheduled breaks; (vi) remove exam information or notes from the testing room; (vii) falsify your identity or impersonate another individual to gain access to the exam; (viii) use your desk, hand, or any other surface, other than what is provided by the test center, as scratch paper; (ix) access, possess or use unauthorized materials during the exam or on unscheduled breaks (these include but are not limited to headsets, listening devices, electronic devices such as mobile phones or smart watches, cigarettes or e-cigarettes, recording or photographic devices and study materials); (x) use unauthorized distributions of exam questions, with or without answers, in preparation for the exam; (xi) ask for or use unauthorized M2SD Exam preparatory materials that you know or have a reasonable basis to know have violated CMSD copyright; (xii) copy, resell, distribute or misuse any CMSD offer code(s) or any other CMSD discount; (xiii) violate any testing policy detailed below or term of this Candidate Agreement; (xiv) violate the test center regulations applicable to your test center in any way; (xv) obtain or attempt to obtain your exam results prior to CMSD’s official published results release; (xvi) alter exam results issued by CMSD and/or misrepresent the pass/fail result; or (xvii) engage in any other misconduct that compromises the integrity, security, or confidentiality of CMSD, the M2SD Program, or the M2SD Exam.
No Disclosure. You understand and agree that the course materials, video lectures, and the M2SD Exam is confidential and proprietary information of CMSD. You agree to maintain the confidentiality of the course materials, video lectures, and the M2SD Exam and not disclose, whether verbally or in writing, the content of the course materials, video lectures, or the M2SD Exam or any part of them to anyone without the express written authorization of CMSD. You further agree not to request any other individual to disclose the course materials, video lectures, or the M2SD Exam or any part of them to you. The course materials, video lectures, and the M2SD Exam are the exclusive property of CMSD and are protected by trade secret, contract, copyright, and other laws. No part of the course materials, video lectures, or the M2SD Exam may be copied or reproduced in part or in whole by any means whatsoever, including but not limited to electronic transmission, without the express written authorization of CMSD. This prohibition includes reproduction orally, in writing, in any Internet “chat room or closed group,” message board, forum, or otherwise.
No Misuse. You agree that you will not copy, publish, disclose, transmit, sell, offer to sell, post, distribute, or otherwise transfer, modify, make derivative works of, reverse engineer, decompile, disassemble or translate the course materials, video lectures, or the M2SD Exam, in whole or in part, in any form or by any means, verbal or written, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose.
No Misrepresentation. You agree that you will not falsify or misrepresent information on your registration application, requests for accommodation, or any other submission to CMSD. You agree that CMSD may request proof (letter of employment, salary slips, copy of degree certificate, or any other relevant documents) to be submitted at any stage of your journey as a candidate to demonstrate registration or award requirements were met.
Violations
Misconduct and violations of this Candidate Agreement may come to the attention of CMSD through many sources, including witness/proctor reports, complaints, use of data forensics, publicly available information, and/or review of candidates’ exam files. CMSD may conduct a review of any alleged misrepresentation of any matter involving, or appearing to involve, any misconduct or violation of any term of this Candidate Agreement. As part of the review, CMSD may (i) contact any person or entity it believes may be able to provide relevant information, documents, and/or assistance in the investigation, (ii) void or withhold your exam result, (iii) sanction you, including, but not limited revocation of your registration in the M2SD Program or CMSD Membership, suspension or termination of your candidacy to take the M2SD Exam Level 1 or any subsequent levels, and/or (iv) take legal action against you.
Communications
CMSD may send notices and documents relating to your candidacy or any review or investigation to your e-mail address as shown in CMSD records. You are responsible for keeping CMSD advised of current mailing and e-mail addresses.
Ownership and Use of Exam Materials
The Exam Record. M2SD Exam files, scores, and candidate responses to exam questions including notes (“Exam Materials”) are part of a candidate’s exam record. You agree that this information is owned by CMSD exclusively and that you will have no right or entitlement to access Exam Materials after they are collected at the test center.
Disclosure of Exam Material. Exam Materials are the exclusive property of CMSD and are subject to the “No disclosure” testing rules as noted above.
Candidate Conduct Pledge
At the test center, you may be required to agree to a candidate pledge and/or a non-disclosure agreement in which you agree to comply with all testing rules and policies. Failure to execute such agreement may cause you to be unable to take the M2SD Exam.
Test Centers
The M2SD Exam is administered around the world by CMSD exam delivery partners. Once you are ready to take the M2SD Exam, you must schedule your examination date and test center location during one of the several open testing windows per year. To do so, you will receive an email from CMSD or the testing center partner describing the steps to schedule and date and location with the exam delivery partner before the expiration of the exam scheduling deadline. There is no guarantee that a test center will be available in your desired market or that your desired date and/or time will be available. If you are scheduled to take the exam at a test center that becomes unavailable, you will be notified of the alternate location/appointment time or contacted to select an alternate location and/or alternate exam appointment time. In order to schedule an exam date, you must register for the appropriate M2SD exam level and pay the standard registration fee. If you cancel your exam after the testing center’s cancellation deadline has passed or fail to appear for the exam at the testing center, you must pay a re-scheduling fee in order to re-schedule for another available exam date. You may attempt each level of the M2SD exam up to four times for the initial registration fee. The three additional attempts require payment of the re-scheduling fee. Failure to pass the exam level after four attempts will require you to re-register for that level and pay another registration fee if you wish to sit for the exam again. You would then have four attempts to pass the exam, as outlined above. You agree that at the time and date of the exam, local regulations and test center policies may mandate proof of vaccination against COVID-19 and/or an absence of COVID or flu-like symptoms to enter, and that if you fail to provide proof or become too ill to be admitted, you may be denied entry and required to pay the rescheduling fee in order to take a future exam.
Testing Accommodations
CMSD offers the M2SD Exam in a manner and location accessible to individuals with documented disabilities in compliance with the law. Accommodation requests must be submitted by the published deadline. More information about requesting a testing accommodation can be found on our exam delivery partner’s website.
Cancellation/Refunds
Neither the M2SD Program registration fee, the exam rescheduling fee, nor the exam re-take fee is refundable.
Exam Disruptions or Exam Compromise
Notwithstanding anything to the contrary herein, CMSD and third-party companies executing exam administration services for CMSD take reasonable steps intended to ensure a safe, standardized administration on the exam day. However, events including but not limited to fire, flood, earthquake, storm, outbreak of disease, other natural disasters, civil unrest, or acts or threats of terrorism or crime, or of a military, para-military, political, or government authority (or even the threat of such an event) could interfere with the exam. If the normal testing process is cancelled, interrupted, delayed, mistimed, or otherwise disturbed, or if exam content is compromised as a result of a disruptive event, CMSD may need to change the date, time, location, or conditions of the exam or cancel the administration of the exam altogether. If this happens the exam may be rescheduled for an alternative date at no additional fee. CMSD Institute also reserves the right to refuse to allow exam scheduling or seat a candidate when it receives information from a reliable source tending to show that the candidate may be disruptive at a testing center or before, during, or within a reasonable period after the test administration. No remedy will be offered to candidates if they caused or were involved in the conduct that resulted in the need for exam rescheduling. With respect to any retest or alternative test date, the candidate will be required to take the entire exam in order to produce a valid result. CMSD will make all decisions regarding the administration of the exam and any corrective action.
Administrative Errors
CMSD endeavors at all times to properly administer, process, prepare, handle, and score all exams properly. In the unlikely event an administrative error occurs in the administration, processing, preparation, handling, or scoring of your exam, CMSD will, if possible, correct it. In cases where any part of the testing service is not delivered or completed, CMSD will offer you the opportunity to retest at no additional fee.
Results Policy
You will receive a result of “pass” or “fail” CMSD does not offer an appeals process or re-marking service. CMSD will notify you when your official exam results are available.
Arbitration of Disputes
All disputes between you and CMSD and/or any or all of its contractors that relate in any way to the relationship between you and CMSD (including but not limited to the Candidate Agreement, the M2SD Program, the M2SD Exam, taking the M2SD Exam including but not limited to requesting or receiving test accommodations, score reporting, the use of your data, test security issues, or score validity), shall exclusively be resolved by a single arbitrator through binding, individual arbitration administered by the American Arbitration Association (“AAA”) under the AAA Consumer Arbitration Rules in effect at the time a request for arbitration is filed with the AAA. Both you and CMSD agree to comply with the AAA’s filing requirements promptly. This includes your obligation to pay to the AAA a non-refundable $200 filing fee or other such amount as the AAA may require at the time (unless the AAA agrees to waive the fee for you) and CMSD’s obligation to pay the remainder of the filing fee. Your share of the filing fee will be reimbursed by CMSD if you prevail in arbitration. Each party will be responsible for its own attorney’s fees and expenses incurred in connection with the arbitration except that CMSD shall recover from you its attorneys’ fees and costs incurred in connection with any action seeking to enforce your violation of CMSD’s intellectual property rights, or your obligations with respect to course materials, teaching videos, or the M2SD Exam.
You understand that by agreeing to arbitration you are waiving your right to have any disputes between you and CMSD heard and decided by a judge or jury.
You expressly waive any right to participate as a representative party or represented party in any class action filed in court. In addition, arbitration under this provision shall proceed solely on an individual basis without the right for any claims to be arbitrated on a class action or collective action basis or on bases involving claims brought in a purported representative capacity on behalf of others. The arbitrator shall not have the authority to combine or aggregate the disputes of more than one individual, conduct any class proceeding, make any class award, or make an award to any person or entity not a party to the arbitration. The arbitrator’s authority to resolve and make written awards is limited to claims solely between you and CMSD or CMSD’s affiliates, officers, executives, representatives or agents. Claims may not be joined or consolidated unless agreed to in writing by CMSD.
Nothing herein shall preclude CMSD from seeking provisional remedies (including but not limited to a violation of CMSD’s intellectual property rights, your obligations with respect to course materials, teaching videos, or the M2SD Exam which you acknowledge will cause irreparable harm to CMSD, for which you agree that money damages would not be possible to ascertain and will not be adequate) in connection with or in aid of arbitration in court, including the right to obtain injunctive relief, specific performance, or other equitable relief from a court of competent jurisdiction for a violation of this Candidate Agreement. In such a proceeding CMSD shall not be required to post a bond or show or prove any actual damages. The rights and remedies of CMSD to such equitable relief are not exclusive and are in addition to the other rights and remedies of CMSD under this Candidate Agreement at law or in equity. You irrevocably waive, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, any objection or opposition to CMSD’s motion to seal and/or close to the public any portion of the record or any hearings, motions, or trials in connection with such action. With respect to any legal proceedings commenced in any court, you and CMSD consent and agree that: (i) the courts of the State of New York and/or the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York shall have exclusive jurisdiction over CMSD and you and over the subject matter of any such proceedings and the enforcement or confirmation of any arbitration award, (ii) the exclusive venue of any such proceedings shall be the County and State of New York, (iii) CMSD and you irrevocably waive any and all right to plead or contend lack of personal jurisdiction in those courts or that such proceedings have been brought in an incorrect or inconvenient venue, and (iv) CMSD and you irrevocably waive any and all right to trial by jury in any such proceedings.
Trademark Restrictions
Nothing in this Candidate Agreement authorizes you to use any CMSD trademarks, service marks, or logos, including but not limited to the M2SD designation, or permit you to claim CMSD membership. Such authorization may be provided in CMSD’s sole discretion after you have passed all M2SD Exam Levels and executed the CMSD membership agreement.
Privacy
Please see the CMSD Privacy Policy on the CMSD website for information on how CMSD uses and processes your personal data.
OFAC Regulations
As a U.S. corporation, CMSD must abide by the regulations of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Foreign Asset Control (“OFAC”). OFAC regulations prohibit us from doing business with persons ordinarily resident in certain countries, as well as persons/entities on the Specially Designated Nationals (“SDN”) List. By signing the Candidate Agreement, you represent these restrictions do not apply to you or your employer. If you are subject to applicable sanctions, then CMSD will cancel your registration and participation in the M2SD Program without a refund. In addition, you agree to upload a copy of your valid passport as part of the registration process.
Limitation of Liability
You acknowledge and agree that CMSD shall have no liability to you for any claim in any way related to the M2SD Program or the M2SD Exam (which is administered by an authorized independent contractor or contractors), including but not limited to, registration, the conduct of the teaching, the course materials, exam fees, the testing environment, and for any acts, omissions or breaches of law which are caused by you or a third-party testing organization engaged by CMSD. CMSD shall not be liable for any losses that were not foreseeable to CMSD and you when this Candidate Agreement is entered into, losses that were not caused by CMSD’s breach, or business losses and/or losses to any other non-party. CMSD SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, REPUTATIONAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OR ANY LOSS OF PROFITS, REVENUE, DATA OR USE. CMSD SHALL BE LIABLE ONLY FOR DIRECT DAMAGES, WHETHER IN CONTRACT, TORT, OR OTHERWISE, AND ANY CMSD LIABILITY SHALL BE LIMITED TO THE FEES PAID TO CMSD BY YOU UNDER THIS AGREEMENT.
Changes and Modifications
CMSD reserves the right to discontinue and change the M2SD Program or any aspect of it at any time, including but not limited to program registration requirements, exam content, exam passing score, and/or testing policies.
Governing Law and Venue
The laws of the State of New York, USA govern this Candidate Agreement. In the event of any claim or dispute, the parties consent to exclusive venue for arbitration in New York City in the State of New York, USA.
Relationship of the Parties
The obligations of the parties shall be limited to those expressly set forth herein. Neither party is taking on a fiduciary relationship with the other via partnership, joint venture, or other method of creating such a relationship. No one other than a party to this Candidate Agreement with CMSD may enforce any of its terms.
Reservation of Rights
In addition to any other rights and remedies provided by law or this Candidate Agreement, CMSD hereby expressly reserves all of its rights and remedies arising out of a breach of this Candidate Agreement and/or any infringement of any CMSD trade secret, copyright, and/or trademarks.
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